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Spanish Flu in SpokaneModeling how a disease progresses in a pandemic, and the related modeling of the effects of different strategies on stopping the pandemic, are, next to perhaps nuclear attack modeling, some of the most sensitive mathematics being done today.
Consider the difficulties of determining pandemic-containment strategies by looking to past pandemics.
Efforts of several cities to halt the spread of the 1918 Spanish flu have now been analyzed and modeled by several research teams. One technique that appears promising is "social distancing" - referred to a s a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) - a fairly obvious strategy of reducing the potential contact between members of the community by closing schools, churches, stores, etc.
I wrote "fairly obvious" - but is it? There are so many contingencies that affected each city that it is hard to draw conclusions. Consider the report of the studies as described by Maryn McKenna of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at U. Minnesota
But while NPIs make intuitive sense, actual evidence for their ability to block or slow flu transmission has been limited. An Institute of Medicine report released last December concluded that the measures might help in a pandemic but should not be oversold.
"It is almost impossible to say that any of the community interventions have been proven ineffective," the report said. "However, it is also almost impossible to say that the interventions, either individually or in combination, will be effective in mitigating an influenza pandemic."
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