Modeling, Understanding, and Prediction

Sean has raised a couple of interesting points in his comments to Joe's presentation on earthquakes and natural disasters, and Tom and Meridyth's presentation on the outbreak of war. I was going to respond to his response, but, on further thought, believe that it is more of a general topic, and I invite responses.

Sean seems to be comfortable with the fact that models exist for natural disasters, and for the onset of war, but is skeptical (his word) because of the inaccuracy in using these models for prediction. I wonder if this is a general feeling among some, or all, of you? If so, what does this say about the modeling process in these cases?

For me it suggests that the modeling is yielding some deeper, or at least different understanding of the phenomena (disasters/war) as opposed to prediction. This is the complete opposite of how we started the semester - where prediction of random fractal patterns was much easier to come by than understanding why the images were produced.

Chaos Is Everywhere

Originally Posted by Pat Rafferty

Click here for interactive NASA site

It is incredible to see the wide variety of subjects that chaos has an affect on. Things that could not normally be understood are simplified under the study of chaos and fractals. For example, the giant red spot of Jupiter is explained as a calmness that can be found within the disorder of the gaseous system. This perfectly explains the idea of chaos, a structured order found within seeming randomness. Chaos theory even has conceptions on other areas such as weather prediction, population growth, and turbulence.

Intro to FractaLog

Trying to pin down Chaos and Fractals is a lot like pushing a very full drawer closed only to have a different drawer pop open. The concepts are groundbreaking and mysterious. Just when you think you understand them and, by applying them, a bit more of the workings of the world, you are reminded that your level of understanding may be much more tenuous. Instead, you find yourself predicting only, without any understanding deeper than a surface level. Or perhaps you are postdicting, and you only have a quasi-understanding after the fact.

It's my hope that this FractaLog serves as a place of comments, questions, and provocative speculations based on our readings in our Chaos and Fractals course. May the dialogue lead to a deeper appreciation of how we model, predict, and understand our corner of the universe.

And just maybe we can keep some of those drawers closed a little longer. But don't be surprised if we find many more drawers nested within drawers within drawers ...